This is not the typical Apple supply problem that has a new product delivered late or an existing product in short supply before it is discontinued. The iPod is a mature product coming down a fat pipeline. It is just difficult to predict the outcome of a marketing gambit like the Apple Music store and throwing open the doors to the majority of computer users. Steve Jobs did not just march out of the dugout, point to the left field stands and smack the first pitch out of the park.

I look at my old 5GB iPod and think, great product, but is it insanely great? The combination of small hard drive, fast downloads, elegant packaging and nice internal software was certainly ground breaking, but let's face it, easily copied. Sony invented the Walkman, so why can't they just make a nice Sony-ish version?

It's iTunes, silly! The iTunes experience has just blown away my PC friends who already had an iPod. Some downloaded it, even without an iPod to make the experience complete. But -- they ARE going to get one. It is a lust product and iTunes is a killer app. They aren't going to switch platforms over this, but a piece of Apple software is going to sell them an iPod.

So what is the state of the Apple product line as the new year approaches? Very robust, if the rumors prove true of a G5 version of the Xserve at Macworld Epo SF 2004. Once this piece is in place, Apple has only to tweak and refine things until their next home run. I suspect displays will eventually sport the metal appearance and G4 production will switch from Moto to IBM. G5 speeds will increase as predicted, but I don't see a tablet coming from Apple. If rumors of cost cutting for the iMac prove true, that will be a very good thing. iMac sales volume could jump with a price drop selling into an economic recovery.

How about another digital lifestyle device? Some kind of video device? Possibly a home entertainment device that is not portable. I could see some sort of OS X based box with much more capability than the iPod, yet much cheaper than a full blown computer. It would be very nice indeed to see some version of OS X and iTunes up on the TV screens of millions of homes. The dreaded set top box, but for home audio using Airport to connect to devices in other rooms. Video will be a much tougher beast for a handheld or media device. The demand has not been there for portable DVD players, but TiVo has certainly made some headway for home video appliances.